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Megatrends and their implications in the globalised world
Renata Pęciak
Abstract
RESEARCH OBJECTIVE: The goal of the paper is to explain the essence of megatrends, to show global trends most often perceived as megatrends, and also to present some implications of these phenomena.
THE RESEARCH PROBLEM AND METHODS: The research problem can be expressed in the form of questions: Are megatrends as phenomena important? Can the method which is appropriate for conducting global trends be determined? The paper has a conceptual character; the main research methods that are applied include literature studies, the method of analysis, the method of comparative analysis and the descriptive method.
THE PROCESS OF ARGUMENTATION: The disquisition is composed of three major parts. The first concerns conceptualisation of megatrends: definitions, the nature of the phenomenon and also identification of phenomena approached as megatrends. The second part provides explanation why research of megatrends is important. The third part presents foresight as the most often applied research method of the discussed phenomenon.
RESEARCH RESULTS: With respect to definitions concerning megatrends there are no significant divergences. However, they occur at the attempt of classification of a particular phenomenon as a megatrend. Megatrends have the nature of permanent trends that in a growing degree permeate all areas of human life. Megatrends increase complexity, uncertainty and risk and accelerate feedback within and between economic, social, political, technological and environmental systems. Therefore it is necessary to monitor and assess these phenomena.
CONCLUSIONS, INNOVATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS: Prediction of megatrends can be an important element of the potential of an organisation, the key to economic decision-making, as well as for planning and building the strategy on different levels of economic and social area, from micro to global level. However research of megatrends is associated, among others, with the problems resulting from ambiguous classification, dynamic character of these phenomena, uncertainty they are accompanied by, and also application of an adequate research method. It is important to contribute to the development of a more innovative research agenda for effective projection of megatrends.
Keywords: megatrends, global economy, globalisation, foresight.Keywords
; megatrends ; global economy ; globalisation ; foresight
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