Abstrakt

RESEARCH OBJECTIVE: This article develops an integrated seven-layer theoretical model combining Faulkner’s Tourism Disaster Management Framework with geopolitical approaches to tourism Hall & Seyfi (2020), Neumayer (2004) and Lee et al. (2020). The aim was to fill this gap in the literature by combining the material and constructivist dimensions of crisis in a single model and then empirically testing it on a case study of Ukraine during the 2013–2014 geopolitical crisis.

THE RESEARCH PROBLEM AND METHODS: The research problem was the inadequacy of traditional crisis management models to explain geopolitical crises in tourism. The empirical component employs quantitative data (UkrStat, Eurostat, Geopolitical Risk Index) and qualitative sources (BBC, EU policy documents). The research period covered the years 2013–2018.

THE PROCESS OF ARGUMENTATION: A seven-layer model was developed through abductive reasoning by integrating three sources of knowledge: (1) classical models of tourism crisis management for analysing the crisis cycle; (2) theories of international relations to capture the material, institutional and discursive dimensions of the crisis; (3) a GPR Index reflecting the dynamics of political shocks.

RESEARCH RESULTS: The 2014 crisis caused a multidimensional shock. The GPR index jumped sharply in March of that year. Perceived safety decreased, as did international arrivals and tourism revenues. The premium segment shrank by 70–75%. There was a profound reorientation of tourist flows within the country. These effects were significantly exacerbated by the media, which painted Ukraine as a country engulfed in conflict and detached the perception of risk from its actual geography.

CONCLUSIONS, INNOVATIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS: The integrated model proposed in this study enables the identification of key mediating processes such as GPR index, media amplification and regional spillover effects. The Ukrainian case demonstrates the model’s explanatory value for understanding tourism behaviour under political instability and highlights practical implications for destination management: the need to incorporate geopolitical scenarios into crisis planning, diversify source markets, strengthen communication strategies and counteract distorted media narratives.