Amerykańskie wybory prezydenckie 2016 r. z perspektywy zmian systemu partyjnego i środowiska instytucjonalnego

Dariusz Stolicki

Published : 2017-01-23

Vol. 7 No. 20 (2016)

American 2016 presidential election in light of changes in party system and institutional environment

Dariusz Stolicki

Abstract

Research Objective: The article is to present select aspects of changes in American party system and institutional environment that influenced 2016 election results and to analyze probable consequences of those results for further evolution of the said systems.

Research Problem and Methods: The article focuses on causes of the party establishment’s loss of control over the nominating process, long-term determinants of Donald Trump’s general election victory and perspectives for reorientation of Republican Party line towards the “Jacksonian tradition.”

Process of Argumentation: Primary campaigns and their outcomes are analyzed in the light of scholarship findings on internal operating mechanisms of American political institutions (primarily legislatures and political parties). Causes of interparty shifts in electoral support are considered qualitatively on the basis of historical trends and examples. Potential consequences of Donald Trump’s victory are analyzed against institutional rules (primarily legal norms) determining feasibility of his electoral platform.

Research Results: A claim of causal relationship between institutional reforms directly or indirectly weakening traditional hierarchical relationships in American politics and loss of establishment control over primaries, which facilitated Donald Trump’s nomination and led to weakening of Hillary Clinton’s campaign, has been preliminarily substantiated. Stable patterns of electoral behaviors that partially explain Republican candidate’s victory in general elections have been indicated.

Conclusions and Recommendations: 2016 American presidential election results are a product of multiple factors and but-for causes. Not insubstantial among them, although receiving little recognition in the campaign commentary, were institutional conditions (such as weakening of party leadership) and stable patterns of electoral behavior (favorable view of political outsiders and inclination towards alternation in power).

Keywords

American political system ; American party system ; US presidential elections 2016 ; US presidential primaries 2016

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