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Język Polski
Polish sovereign nuclear deterrence capabilities in light of selected relist theories of international relations
Abstract
RESEARCH OBJECTIVE: The aim of the paper is to argue for the thesis that Poland should have an in depth strategic discussion whether it should acquire sovereign nuclear deterrence capabilities.
THE RESEARCH PROBLEM AND METHODS: The analitico-deducitve method was used for determining the content of generalizations present in the interpreted realist theories of International Relations and arriving at the conclusions derived form them. The constructivist method was used that requires to present scenarios between which the zone of plausibility could be determined in which Poland’s sovereign capabilities for nuclear deterrence can be a subject of in depth strategic discourse.
THE PROCESS OF ARGUMENTATION: Reconstruction of M. Kaplan’s unit veto system ideal type pointing out to the threat of nuclear weapons proliferation. Analysis of K. Waltz’s nuclear peace thesis showing how proliferation makes the international system more peaceful. Presentation of R. Schweller’s entropic vision and discussion of its consequences in view of nuclear weapons proliferation. Construction of two scenarios of the future security environment of Poland: the continuation scenario, in which the security guarantees from the USA remain in force, and the discontinuation scenario in which they have been withdrawn.
RESEARCH RESULTS: Reconstruction of the discussed theories allows for projecting their consequences on the scenarios concerning the future security environment of Poland. It shows the urgency with which the discussion whether Poland should acquire sovereign nuclear deterrence capabilities should happen.
CONCLUSIONS, INNOVATIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS: In the scenario in which the security guarantees from the USA remain in force, Poland would not need nuclear weapons. In the scenario in which they have been withdrawn, acquiring sovereign nuclear deterrence capabilities would be an important guarantee of Poland’s survival. In either case there is a strategic need for a debate about it between scholars analysts and policymakers.
Keywords
Poland, nuclear deterrence, (non)proliferation, international system ; Poland ; nuclear deterrence ; (non)proliferation ; international system
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