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Język Polski
Quantification of external threats to national security. An index of geopolitical risk for poland in the xxi century
Abstract
RESEARCH OBJECTIVE: Our objective is to present a universal quantitative measure of the external security threat, both its level and its dynamic.
THE RESEARCH PROBLEM AND METHODS: The return of external threats to national security leads governments to take preventive measures to avoid them materializing. The effectiveness of a deterrence strategy depends on its capacity to monitor the magnitude and nature of security threats and challenges. Unfortunately, many phenomena coming from the international security environment are difficult to quantify. To address the problem, we reviewed the national and international literature, performed statistical analysis, and calculated the Spearman rang correlation.
THE PROCESS OF ARGUMENTATION: In the initial, theoretical part of the study, we outlined the security as a continuing process, both in its current state and its dynamic nature. Moreover, we discussed the role of quantitative models in explaining the complex reality of national security. We then introduced an index of geopolitical risk, which has been well-known in the international literature since 2018, as a measure for quantifying security challenges and threats from the international milieu. In the second, empirical part, we analyzed the monthly values of the mentioned index for Poland to show how that measure responded to the real threats in the years 2000-2023. Then, we calculated a monotonic correlation of indexes for Poland and Hungary to check the convergence in the threats’ dynamics between countries. Finally, we draw some conclusions.
RESEARCH RESULTS: The index of geopolitical risk is a universal quantitative indicator for security threats and challenges coming from the international environment. Our gauge reflects the current level of threats and the dynamic of the security process.
CONCLUSIONS, INNOVATIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS: The geopolitical risk index may well be advantageous for researchers in comparative studies as well as in the modelling of national security.
Keywords
risk ; quantitative indicant ; security governance
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