English
Język Polski
Ryzyko, czy niepewność - próba oceny szoków cenowych na rynku energii?
Michał Thlon
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9627-7773Andrzej Brożek
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4950-2816Jan Thlon
http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4571-8679Risk or Uncertainty - Attempt to Evaluate Price Shocks in the Energy Market? Case Study of the Polish Energy Market in 2018
Abstract
RESEARCH OBJECTIVE: The aim of the article is to translate theoretical concepts of risk and uncertainty in the economy into a practical dimension related to the electricity market in Poland. It examines attributing market phenomena with properties of risk or uncertainty to assess the feasibility of forecasting energy market changes. The authors seek to determine whether the Polish energy market experienced extraordinary changes that would legally allow altering the contractual relationship between the energy seller and buyer.
THE RESEARCH PROBLEM AND METHODS: The research problem is the volatility of electricity prices in Poland and their predictability. The study employs economic-legal analysis and empirical data analysis of significant price shocks in the Polish energy market.
THE PROCESS OF ARGUMENTATION: The argumentation involves analyzing economic and legal factors causing sudden changes in the Polish electricity market. The analysis is based on market data from the first significant price shock in the Polish energy market in 2018.
RESEARCH RESULTS: The analysis identifies factors that significantly impacted the increase in electricity prices in Poland in 2018. The market volatility was extraordinary, suggesting that the scale of electricity price changes could not have been predicted ex ante.
CONCLUSIONS, INNOVATIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS: The analysis concludes that developing a price risk management strategy for the Polish electricity market is necessary. The results have significant practical implications for stabilizing economic processes and managing price risk in the energy market. The analysis period was inspired by numerous 2018 court cases between energy companies and corporate consumers, demanding the “adjustment” of contractual remuneration due to an unpredictable increase in market energy prices, based on the rebus sic stantibus clause regulated in Articles 357¹ and 632 § 2 of the Civil Code.
Keywords
risk ; uncertainty ; energy market ; energy price volatility ; state's policy
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