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Gerrymandering – a simulation test on the example of West Pomeranian Voivodeship
Abstract
Research Objective: Research objective is to identify that the manipulations of electoral district boundaries (gerrymandering) are a threat for free and fair elections in Polish parliamentary elections and if geographical stability of political preferences can be the basis of gerrymandering.
The Research Problem and Methods: The main hypothesis is: Pre-election manipulation of district boundaries, carried out on the basis of the results of the 2015 elections, would result in a more favorable distribution of seats for the winner of the election also in 2019. In this studies were used comparative method, data analysis method and institutional and legal method. Moreover, in article used simulation of gerrymandering carried out on the basis of the results of the 2015.
The Proces of Argumentation: First part of simulation is designation of the districts with higher electoral support for one of the Polish political parties. In basis of that, will be carried manipulation of district boundaries. In last part official results of the parliamentary election will be converted for new division of district boundaries.
Research Results: Effect of the simulation is different results of the parliamentary elections in Poland, when we use new (manipulated) division of electoral district boundaries. In effect one of political parties has more seats (in Sejm RP and Senat RP). Gerrymandering is a real dangerous for free and fair election and whole electoral system.
Conclusions, Innovations and Recommendations: Consequences of the manipulations in elements electoral systems like election formula or technique of converting votes into seats are clear. This article show that dangerous of gerrymandering is real, but we don`t have enough knowledge about manipulation of electoral district boundaries. So, one of the tasks for polish political science is analysis and obserwation electoral system also from this perspective.
Keywords
gerrymandering ; electoral district boundaries ; electoral manipulations ; electoral system
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