Cash Supply Changes in Poland During COVID-19 and the War in Ukraine: Implications for a Cashless Society

Paweł Węgrzyn; Michał Kruszka

doi:10.35765/hp.2777

Data publikacji : 2026-09-30

Tom 17 Nr 60 (2026)

Cash Supply Changes in Poland During COVID-19 and the War in Ukraine: Implications for a Cashless Society

Paweł Węgrzyn

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8963-2765

Michał Kruszka

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9138-7225

DOI: https://doi.org/10.35765/hp.2777

Dział: ARTYKUŁY VARIA / ARTICLES VARIA

Abstrakt

RESEARCH OBJECTIVE: This article investigates the impact of two major external shocks—the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine—on the supply of cash (M0) in Poland. The study aims to assess how these crises have influenced the progress toward transitioning to a cashless society and their broader implications for monetary policy.

THE RESEARCH PROBLEM AND METHODS: The study utilises Interrupted Time Series (ITS) analysis to examine changes in the cash supply during and after these external shocks. This methodology enables a robust analysis of the immediate and long-term impacts of crises on cash supply, incorporating key economic variables such as inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates.

THE PROCESS OF ARGUMENTATION: This article contributes to the literature on monetary policy and financial stability by providing new insights into cash demand during external shocks. The use of ITS analysis offers a novel approach to understanding the dynamics of cash supply in crisis periods, particularly in the context of transitioning towards a cashless economy.

RESEARCH RESULTS: The results indicate a significant short-term increase in cash supply following both crises, driven by societal behavioural responses to economic uncertainty. Individuals opted for cash withdrawals, which were not returned to banks, suggesting cash’s ongoing use for transactional purposes. In the long term, the study found no statistically significant changes in cash supply trends, indicating that the crises’ effects were absorbed without altering the long-term trajectory.

CONCLUSIONS, INNOVATIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS: These findings have important implications for the debate on the transition to a cashless society. While digital payments offer convenience, the study highlights the continued societal preference for cash as a security measure during crises. Policymakers should consider maintaining a balance between promoting cashless transactions and ensuring the availability of physical cash to support financial stability.

Słowa kluczowe

Cash supply ; Cashless society ; Monetary policy ; Financial stability ; Interrupted Time Series Analysis

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Paweł Węgrzyn

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8963-2765

Afiliacja

Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie, Katedra Geografii Ekonomicznej Polska

Michał Kruszka

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9138-7225

Afiliacja

Associate Professor at the Vistula University, Faculty of Business and International Relations Polska